2019 stamping industry enterprise survey report
Industry operation in the second half of 2019
1. Economic situation and industry situation
The quarter-on-quarter comparison between the second half of 2019 and the first half of 2019: 70.6% of enterprises chose the same in terms of national situation; 47.1% of enterprises chose the same in terms of industry situation, and 29.4% of choices decreased. The year-on-year situation in the second half of 2019 and the second half of 2018: 56.2% of enterprises chose a year-on-year decrease in both the national situation and the industry situation. It shows that most companies hold a generally pessimistic attitude towards the economic situation and industry situation in the second half of 2019. It also reflects the difficulties of the country and the industry’s economic operation and the general difficulties in business operations. See Table 1 for specific data.
2. Enterprise operation
The quarter-on-quarter comparison between the second half of 2019 and the first half of 2019: sales in the first half of the year and the second half of the year were basically the same; in terms of import and export and prices of sheet metal parts, they were generally flat or decreased. In the second half of 2019, compared with the second half of 2018, sales, imports and exports, and product prices generally decreased or remained the same. It shows that the market environment in 2019 is poor and the profitability of enterprises is reduced. See Table 2 for specific data.
3. Enterprise investment
Regardless of whether the second half of 2019 is compared with the first half of 2019, or the second half of 2019 is compared with the second half of 2018, more companies choose to increase and remain the same in terms of new automation equipment and transformation of existing automation equipment; R&D of new products is also an option The increase and the balance are more, indicating that despite the difficulties in business operations, the investment in automation transformation and upgrading and new product research and development has not decreased. Companies continue to pay attention to reducing labor costs, improving efficiency, improving quality and investment in new product research and development. See Table 3 for specific data.
4. Market demand
According to the survey results of the demand situation in the application field of stamping parts in 2019: the automobile industry in the second half of 2019 was generally reduced or the same as the same period last year; in the home appliance industry, the second half of the year was basically the same as the first half of the year, and compared with the second half of 2018. Most of them decreased or remained the same; in the electronics and communications industries, the second half of the year was better than the first half, but it was also decreased compared to 2018; agricultural machinery and construction machinery were the same or increased more than the previous year, and the agricultural machinery industry also decreased year-on-year; In terms of equipment manufacturing, both the chain and the year-on-year declines. The data shows that the demand in the automotive industry and equipment manufacturing industry has declined significantly, while other industries have remained flat or improved. See Table 4 for specific data.
Table 1 Comparison of economic situation and industry situation
Note: Ratio = the total number of companies voting for the trend of the project / the total number of participating companies in the survey. Same below.
5. Material cost
Except for the increase in the price of galvanized steel sheet, other materials are generally flat. Explaining material prices are relatively stable in 2019. See Table 5 for specific data.
Table 2 Survey of business operations
Table 3 Enterprise investment
Table 4 Market demand for stamping parts
6. Technical personnel
In terms of industry technical personnel, the data generally reflect the same or decrease, indicating that the shortage of industry technical personnel has not been alleviated. See Table 6 for specific data.
Industry development trends in 2020
1. The economic situation of the country and industry
Through research, the first half of 2020 and the second half of 2019 are compared with each other: In terms of the national economic situation, 50% of enterprises chose the same level, and 28.6% of enterprises chose to decrease; in terms of industry situation, 42.9% of enterprises believed that the industry situation had declined from the previous month. The year-on-year comparison between the first half of 2020 and the first half of 2019: Most companies choose to decrease or remain the same. The downward pressure on the national economy has increased and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic has increased. In the first half of the year, all industries will be struggling, especially in the first quarter. Some experts believe that the national and industry economic situation is expected to recover in the second quarter. See Table 7 for specific data.
2. Enterprise operation
Regarding sales and imports and exports, whether it is year-on-year or quarter-on-quarter, experts’ forecasts for the first half of 2020 will mostly decrease or remain the same; in terms of prices, they are generally considered to be flat or increase. From the analysis of this set of data, in addition to product prices expected to remain stable, experts generally hold a pessimistic attitude towards industry sales and imports and exports. This is consistent with the judgment of the economic situation of the entire country and industry. Especially in terms of import and export, affected by the complex and changeable international economic situation and the epidemic, import and export will be greatly affected. See Table 8 for specific data.
Table 5 Material cost
Table 6 Technical personnel
Table 7 Comparison of economic situation and industry situation
3. Enterprise investment
Automation, digitization, and new product research and development expenses have generally increased or remained the same, indicating that industry enterprises attach importance to automation and information transformation and investment in new technology and new product research and development. From the data point of view, continuing to increase automation, digitization and new product development will not weaken. This is an important means for companies to survive and develop in a fiercely competitive environment. By increasing the proportion of technology R&D investment, the company’s competitiveness has been improved. Become the consensus of business leaders and experts. See Table 9 for specific data.
4. Market demand
Regarding the market demand of the stamping industry in the first half of 2020, according to the feedback of all participating companies, the demand forecast for the automotive industry will continue to decrease or remain the same, the electronics and communications industries are forecast to increase demand, and the equipment manufacturing industry is forecast to recover. Most experts in other industries forecast Will be flat. However, it should be said that the mentality of maintaining a balance is the most obvious. If some factors affecting the operation of the industry are transformed in a vicious direction, it will lead to a reduction in demand and the operation of the industry will be very difficult. See Table 10 for specific data.
5. Material cost
In terms of material costs, there are many companies that predict flat and growth. Explain that the price of materials will tend to rise after a period of plateau. See Table 11 for specific data.
6. Forecast of technical personnel
Most companies are flat or reduced, and the shortage of talents in the industry will continue in recent years and will not be fundamentally changed. See Table 12 for specific data.
Operation summary and development trend forecast
⑴ The stamping industry encountered unprecedented challenges in 2019. On the one hand, labor and rent costs continue to rise; on the other hand, the shrinking market and sluggish demand directly lead to a sharp decline in corporate profitability. Looking forward to 2020, the overall economic aggregate for the whole year will be basically the same as that of 2019. In the first half of the year, some industries affected by the epidemic will experience serious declines and are expected to rebound in the second half of the year. At the same time, the industrial structure will change and some backward production capacity will suffer. To be eliminated.
Table 8 Research on the operation of enterprises
Table 9 Enterprise investment
Table 10 Market demand for stamping parts
Table 11 Material cost situation
Table 12 Talent forecast
(2) In the automobile industry, the stamping industry in 2019 was affected by automobile sales, and the production and sales volume decreased. In the first half of 2020, affected by the epidemic, it continued to decline. It is expected that there will be a recovery growth in the second half of 2020. From the perspective of international and domestic car ownership and the development of car companies, China’s stamping market still has a lot of room for improvement. A series of policies to stimulate automobile consumption introduced by countries such as the prohibition of purchase restrictions and traffic restrictions have played a certain role in the stable development of the automobile market, industrial transformation and upgrading, and stable economic operation. However, due to the previous purchase tax preferential policies, which severely overdraft consumer demand, the new consumer stimulus policies have relatively limited influence on market demand. The implementation of the National Sixth Standard has accelerated the pace of elimination in the automobile market, and the industrial policy is fully inclined to new energy vehicles. The transition period for new energy vehicle subsidies is over, the effect of policy stimulus will gradually weaken, and the development of the automotive industry will return to market orientation.
⑶ In 2019, the macro economy of the commercial vehicle field maintained steady growth. Driven by the continued favorable policies such as the rebound in infrastructure investment, the elimination of National III vehicles, the rapid development of new energy logistics vehicles, and the tightening of overhaul, compared with the continued downturn in the passenger vehicle market, In 2019, China’s commercial vehicle industry developed steadily, with output increasing by 1.9% year-on-year and sales volume falling by 1.1%. In 2020, with the increase of new infrastructure projects, the demand for trucks is stable and the passenger car continues to be under pressure. The industry is developing in a low-carbon and intelligent direction, and the trend of equipment networking and big data is obvious.
⑷The main products of the fine blanking industry are used in seats and gearboxes in traditional automobiles. About 70% of all fine blanking parts are used in automobiles. Therefore, the fine blanking industry is very dependent on automobiles. With the implementation of environmental protection policies, new energy vehicles will become the mainstream, which means that the share of traditional vehicles will decline rapidly. Therefore, the decline in demand for automotive fine-blanking parts is an inevitable trend. It is expected that the sales of traditional cars will continue to decline in 2020, which will lead to a decline in orders from fine blanking manufacturers and force fierce competition among fine blanking companies.
⑸In terms of stamping equipment, new orders were signed in 2019. Due to the general overcapacity in the automotive industry, the overall demand for stamping equipment with traditional processes has fallen sharply. The performance of a leading stamping company has fallen by nearly 40%, and other companies have also experienced sharp declines to varying degrees. Life is even more difficult for small equipment companies.
⑹ In 2020, there will be a certain demand for products with the upgrading of equipment of auto companies supporting suppliers. However, the current auto market is still declining, and the number and amount of new demand are significantly reduced compared to previous years. It is expected that in 2020, under the influence of multiple factors, the investment in the auto industry will enter a 2-3 year adjustment period, and the demand for stamping lines will be greatly reduced. However, Internet-based customized technology and intelligent equipment and management service platforms that meet the individual needs of enterprises are expected to be the same or grow slightly in 2020 and 2019. (Writer: Li Fenghua, Industry Research Office of China Forging Association)